Complexity science for boosting security  (CSBS) Session 2

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Time and Date: 14:15 - 18:00 on 21st Sep 2016

Room: G - Blauwe kamer

Chair: Ana Isabel Barros

19005 The Complexity of Countering Ideologically Driven Violent Extremism through narratives [abstract]
Abstract: Terrorism is, by definition, violence driven by a sociopolitical or religious ideology that resides in a larger cultural worldview.? Worldviews and ideologies are complex systems ?that emerge from the complex causal interaction of cognitive, affective, and social factors.? As is true with all complex systems, they evolve in ways that can be surprising and hard to predict? (Home-Dixon et al 2013). This is certainly true of the dynamic and complex set of ideas called Jihadist ideology that arguably motivated those carrying out the recent wave of attacks in Brussels, Paris, and Istanbul.?I will describe the master narrative of Islamic Jihadism and how this narrative is supported by the larger Islamic worldview.?I will also discuss why some of our counter-terrorism rhetoric and actions can have the counterintuitive result of supporting elements of the Jihadist narrative. I will end with a suggestion on how the ideology-as-complex-system approach can help us design a more effective strategy for countering Islamic Jihadism
Afzal Upal (DRDC)
19006 Complexity in security: Discovering the narrative in crime related data [abstract]
Abstract: One of the most complex challenges societies currently face is the threat of terrorism. In order to adequately prevent terrorism, law enforcement agencies and intelligence services need to shift from prosecuting crime to anticipating crime. In this approach the discovery of the narrative of a terrorist organisation seems to be crucial. Pandora Intelligence, in cooperation with TNO, developed an innovative scenario-model that can be used to detect narratives in crime-related data. These narratives can be used to support law-enforcement agencies to effectively anticipate criminal behaviour. Moreover, the scenario-model may be used to create ?alter-narratives?, intervention-options that neutralise the narrative of the adverse party. In this presentation the challenges that intelligence agencies are facing will be discussed. The enormous quantities of complex data hide unknown, and potentially useful information. A film scenario approach - as used in the film industry- show potential to turn this complex data into actionable intelligence products. Moreover, like filmmakers, terrorists use a narrative, a central storyline that defines the behaviour of the individuals involved. Combining scenarios from films and books with real incidents, offers an added value in understanding the mind-set of a terrorist. The added value of the creativity of filmmakers and scenario writers will also be addressed as they offer support in the creative thinking process required to counter-terrorism.
Peter A. de Kock (Pandora Intelligence)
19007 Opponent Resilience [abstract]
Abstract: The hyper connectivity of the society yields that terrorism and past and on-going violent conflicts are extremely dynamic and volatile and often not contained within national borders or ideologies. Therefore, understanding opponent behaviour has become more than ever essential, reinforcing Sun Tzu writings in 5th Century BC ?If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles? (Art of War). However, limited modelling is available to provide insight into the effect of interventions on opponents and in particular on opponent resilience. Not only considering the modus operandi and its directed chain of actions that leads to an attack, or to criminal events, is important. It is also essential to analyse opponent resillience in the context of the opponent organization, its social networks, the society and physical environment in which it takes place, as all these aspects may influence each other.This paper explores the combination of Agent-Based Modelling and System Dynamics to derive a generic multi-methodology framework for modelling opponent behaviour in its context that can provide insights into the dynamics and resilience over time. It allows to combine detailed modelling, e.g. for the opponent organization, with high-level models, for example economic developments. Scenarios can be tailored for specific opponent problems ranging from insurgent situations in a military context to criminal gangs in a civil context.
Bob van der Vecht, Ana Isabel Barros, Bert Boltjes, Tom Logtens, Nico Reus (TNO)
19008 Goldilocks and the Wicked Problem [abstract]
Abstract: Governments are increasingly faced with challenges that present themselves as highly complex or ?wicked problems? (Rittel and Webber, 1973) . These problems are characterized by their strongly interdependent elements. They are typically not ?owned? by one organization, but instead have a myriad of stakeholders with different and sometimes conflicting perspectives on the system. Finally, these problems become especially challenging for areas related to security, where the complex systems being addressed are highly adaptive and covert. For over half a century, systems researchers have been working on developing formal approaches to help solve very complex problems. Different systems paradigms have emerged over the years, and are often labeled ?hard?, ?soft? and ?critical?. Hard systems (like system dynamics, system analysis, and system engineering), while designed to deal with multiple interacting variables, assume that the problem can definitively defined by an ?expert? practitioner and that optimal solutions can be achieved. Soft systems methods (SSM) were developed that rely more on qualitative methods and a focus on participation by all stakeholders to formulate the problem from multiple perspectives. Critical systems methods build on SSM by including methods that specifically address situations where there are conflicts among stakeholders and where some stakeholders hold an inordinate amount of power. This paper will summarize a multi-method Systemic Intervention methodology where soft and critical systems methods are used together with hard systems methods to develop interagency systemic strategies for countering transnational organized crime and its convergence with U.S. urban gang crime. Transnational crime organizations are becoming an increasingly complex and enduring threat globally. They pose a significant and growing domestic threat, especially through the influence they have on street gang crime in U.S. urban centers. Transnational crime groups and urban street gangs converge into an interdependent crime system that is highly adaptive and interconnected. They present an ever-evolving threat that cannot be addressed by breaking the problem into parts and addressing challenges independently within vertically structured agencies. Crime on the Urban Edge (CUE) is a research project being conducted at Argonne National Laboratory that is using 1) a critical systems method for participatory problem structuring that engages key stakeholders from local, regional, and federal perspectives and 2) and a computational hard systems method called AnticipatoRy Complex Adaptive Network Extrapolation (ARCANE). ARCANE is a genetic algorithm system for automatically generating system dynamics models that represent potential system adaptions. This model is being designed and developed for anticipating how wicked problem react under given disruptions or interventions. CUE illustrates a Goldilocks approach to wicked problems that is not hard, nor soft, but perhaps ?just right?.
Ignacio Martinez-Moyano, Pamela Sydelko, Michael North, and Brittany Friedman (Argonne National Laboratory)
19009 A Complex Systems Approach to Modelling and Analysis of Security and Resilience in Air Transport [abstract]
Abstract: The importance of security has been increasingly recognized in the area of air transport. However, formal, mathematical, and computational approaches to modelling and analysis of security, in particular of its physical dimension (e.g., security of airports), are currently largely lacking. To address this gap, in this presentation a formal methodology for systematic security risk assessment of air transport sociotechnical systems is introduced. To handle environmental uncertainty and to provide a resilient response to disruptions, modern complex air transport systems combine elements of hierarchical top-down control and bottom-up self-organization. General Systems Theory is useful to model hierarchical systems, whereas Complex Adaptive Systems Theory and its prominent tool ? multiagent systems modelling ? are well-suited to describe self-organ.ization and bottom-up emergence. In the proposed methodology both theories are integrated to realistically represent and analyse by simulation security- and resilience-related aspects of sociotechnical systems in air transport. The methodology is illustrated by a case study in airport security
Alexei Sharpanskykh (Delft University of Technology)
19010 Discussion and wrap-up Ana Isabel Barros (TNO)